Why Does Card Counting in Blackjack Provide an Advantage Against the Casino?

My nephew Michael is a perfect example of a novice card counter. He knows how to count down a deck of cards, and he knows basic strategy. After that he only possess a basic understanding of card counting elements such as true count conversion, the use of play indices, bet spread requirements, and table conditions.

In addition, like all novice card counters, his playing bankroll is represented by the money in his pocket. Michael may be able to count down a deck of cards in less than 30 seconds, but he will be unable to maintain a long-term edge over the casino because he is using an incomplete set of tools.

One night Michael decided to test his new gained, but limited skill set, and count cards at a small casino in North Las Vegas. In addition to his meager understanding of card counting techniques, he added two other variables to the equation; alcohol and a girl he had just recently met. However, fortune shined down on Michael, and he came home a $40 winner. He was so ecstatic about his win that he woke me up to tell me that card counting was his new profession. After much discouragement as I could heap on him, he refused to accept that his winnings were pure luck, and he proceeded over the course of several nights to lose the $40 and an additional unknown amount that he did not care to share with me.

Why did Michael suffer the drastic turn around in his path to becoming a professional blackjack player? Many people don’t realize that to be a profitable card counter you have to understand and master an entire set of techniques. You also need to practice these techniques just as one would need to do to become good at a skill game such as golf, bowling, or even darts. If you don’t practice the skill you will never excel at the sport. It’s the same with counting cards. If you don’t practice the different techniques that make up professional card counting, how can you expect to make money in the long-term? The professional level card counter is known to practice more hours per day than he spends playing in the casino.

I was once told a very good rule of thumb when describing the levels a person has to master before they can count cards, and beat blackjack. Of 100 people who pick up a book on card counting, only 10% will read it from cover to cover. For every 100 people who read the book on counting, only 10% will practice counting down a deck of cards. For every 100 people who have counted down a deck of cards, only 10% can do it in less than 30 seconds without making a mistake. Of that 100, only 10% will learn anything about the technique set that constitute the skill of card counting, and only 10% of those 100 will achieve the ability to breakeven or better on the tables over the long-term. This rule of thumb means that for every 100,000 people who pick up that original book on card counting; only one will achieve the ability to be considered a professional level card counter. Note: Michael eventually became a prolific card counter, but chooses to use his skills from the casino side of the business.

Counting Cards is Actually a Measurement Tool for Game Advantage

Why does the skill of counting cards provide the player with an edge over the casino? What card counting does is provide the knowledge player with tool for measuring the advantage maintained by the casino through their use of numbers of decks and rules. This tool can be used to determine when the house has the advantage, and when the subset of cards remaining in the shoe or deck favors the blackjack player. For example, in a standard six deck shoe game where the casino elects to deal 4.5 decks before shuffling the cards, 80 dealt hands out of 100 will favor the house or will be even. However, 20 hands out of 100 will favor the player, and these are the positive situations that the card counter is watching for. Once a positive situation is recognized, the knowledgeable card counter will wager more money. If the information dictates the shoe or deck is not in the player’s favor, the counter will wager the least amount of money that he can (if any). When done correctly, the card counter can gain an overall mathematical edge of approximately 0.5% to 1.5%. In essence, by watching the cards being removed from the deck, and effectively calculating mathematical edge of the remaining cards in the shoe or deck, the card counter is reversing the blackjack table edge back onto the casino.

A Person Needs to Master the Entire Technique to be Effective at Counting Cards

Step one in becoming a card counter, or card counter catcher, is the master of basic strategy for the game set one wishes to attack. I used the term “master” because hand play decisions have to be snap decisions; practically second nature. If one needs to ponder a situation, it will detract from his ability to observe and consider other blackjack game factors. It is also essential that the person learn how to count down a single deck of cards in less than 40 seconds. Professional level counters should be able to count a single deck in 20 seconds or less. The following points include other factors the blackjack card counter must “master” before qualifying as “professional level”:

True Count Conversion

Card counting originally was established to attack single deck games, but today the counter’s bread and butter is shoe games. In order to accommodate the dilution effect of more playing cards, the counter needs to incorporate a technique known as “true count conversion”. The process of counting the value of the cards as they are seen by the counter is known as keeping a “running” count. Because of the additional cards, the counter can mitigate the dilution effect by dividing the running count by the number of decks remaining unseen by the counter. This produces what is known as the “true” count. The true count is then used to make wagering decisions, hand strategy decisions that deviate from basic strategy, and decisions on when to wager insurance profitably. Note: Counters who use unbalanced count systems such as the KO or the Red Seven, do not utilize a conversion to true count. These count systems are designed to be used without the process.

Strategy Indices

The professional level card counter uses basic strategy, 80% of his hands to make the best play and insurance decisions. However, 20% of those hands are played based on the ever-changing card composition of the deck or shoe. During these situations the counter relies on a number of strategy deviations known as either “indices” or “matrix numbers”. These deviations are based on the true count of the cards. They provide the counter with the best hand strategy to use with important and common hand totals. The professional level counter uses approximately 18 to 28 deviations when counting cards; the remaining decisions are made using basic strategy. The most important deviation occurs when the dealer has an up-card of Ace, and the player must decide whether or not to buy insurance on his hand. Other deviations are made with common hitting and stand decisions, important double down hands, surrender, and believe it or not, splitting ten value cards versus the dealer’s 5 or 6.

Table Conditions

Understanding and identifying specific table conditions are less important in multiple deck games than they would be in deep penetration single deck games. In a single deck game, the professional level counter will sit in the last or latest position on the table. Late positions allow the counter to see more cards prior to his hand decision. Hand decisions hold a substantial importance in a single deck game; not so much in a multiple deck game. In multiple deck games, table position is not that important. The counter does needs to know the game’s mathematical house advantage, as well as degree of deck penetration, and he will use this information to plan his bet spread strategy.

Bet Spread Requirements

One of the most misunderstood elements of card counting by the casino executive is the required bet spread needed to achieve a worthwhile advantage over a specific blackjack game. Without an adequate bet, based on deck penetration and the game’s house advantage, the card counter will not gain a long-term advantage. For example, while most casino executives believes the counter gains a “huge” advantage with a bet spread of 1 to 8 units on an average six deck game, the professional counter is required to make a minimum spread of 1 to 12 units (1 to 16 units or better is optimal) to gain a moderate advantage over the game. In addition, it is a must that the counter increases his wagers substantially each time the deck or shoe reaches a true count level greater than +1. The difference between a non-profitable counter and a profitable counter usually depends on the size of bet spread, and the counter’s ability to wager up to the required maximum units as soon as possible.

Bankroll Requirements

This is another area that separates the successful counters from the failures. Most semi-professional card counters are undercapitalized, and will go broke when suffering moderate, but normal negative win/loss fluctuation. The professional level counter knows that to survive standard statistical fluctuations he must have a substantial bankroll of approximately 100 times his maximum wager.

Primary Elements of Success: Bankroll and Commitment

The true profession card counter will be well bankrolled, well-schooled in the various techniques and skills, and have the courage to make the required higher limit wagers when necessary. This requires a great deal of commitment and discipline. Most people who decide that card counting is a “neat” way of beating the casino do not have the wherewithal to invest the time to learn and train to become a card counter who will win money in the long-term. In addition, most of these people cannot commit their personal finances to preserving the necessary bankroll to overcome standard win/loss fluctuations. Most want-to-be professional counters put together an inadequate bankroll and then steal from these funds to pay for their month’s cost of living. In the long run, most people who aspire to be professional card counters never get past the “novice” stage, and the ones that do rarely commit the time and money to move into the profitable level. Only a small handful of players ascend to the level of truly profitable professional level counters. For the casino executive, these are the only people you need to be concerned about since they are the only card counter who will be able to gain a long-term advantage of the game of blackjack.

♠️ The View from the Box

“The professional level card counter has to work to gain a 1% average advantage over the standard game of blackjack. The counter’s maximum gain on a specific hand rarely exceeds a 3% to 4% edge. This occurs approximately once in 100 hands of play.”

— Bill Zender, BZ & Associates

Obviously, professional card counting is a grind that takes hours of playing time to achieve positive results. Novice and semi-professional counters will lose money in the long-term. Only the true professional level card counters will earn enough money to make their career worthwhile.