# Probability with Special Guest Chris from Faces & Aces

This is Chris from Faces & Aces Podcast. He is joining me in this livestream today.

Chris: Thank you for having me.

Heather: Yes. No problem. Thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate it.

Chris: Happy to be here.

Heather: If you get a chance check out his podcast, go to his website, it’s really awesome. He has some great podcasts. You guys totally want to see this. Today we are doing a livestream on probability.

Chris: I am just here for arm candy, because I know nothing about probability. I am of no help whatsoever.

Heather: Well that’s good though, because then if you don’t know you will have questions. Then I can help you.

Chris: I am here to learn. I am here to learn about probability and to make me a better smarter gambler.

Heather: Are you a lifelong learner.

Chris: I am a lifelong learner.

Heather: Cool I like that.

Chris: Learning never ends.

Heather: And it doesn’t matter how old you are. There is always something else to learn. There is something else to know.

Chris: Most definitely.

Heather: Chris will ask his friends questions as well. So might be getting questions from the Twitter community as well.

Chris: I will be checking periodically over to the right.

Heather: I had one question that we are going to get started with on Facebook. This question came from Tim. Tim is a really really awesome Aces – you know I call my Vegas Aces my website so everyone that follows me – my followers I call my Aces. So whenever I say, “Oh my Aces.” Or “Tim is one of my Aces.” This is what I am talking about. So Tim is a really awesome guy. He has been following me for a while and he has a question.

Q - What is the probability of hitting a straight versus a royal flush in 3 Card Poker?

A - Well, unfortunately we don’t have any royal flushes in 3 Card Poker. But we do have straight flushes so we will do that. So what is the difference between a straight and a straight flush? Well there are 720 combinations for a straight and for a straight flush there are only 48 combinations. So the probability for a straight is 0.325%. Whereas for a straight flush it is 0.002%. So that is a pretty big difference. That is a pretty big difference, 0.325 vs 0.002. And remember with probability the numbers – even though we have a decimal number, that number can be converted. So that can give you a percentage, that can give you a fraction. You know math! Wohoo.

Chris: I was told there would be no math.

Heather: Oh Sorry. I lied to you. I had to lie to you to get you here. Otherwise…you know.

Chris: Where is that drink that I ordered? Do we get drink service over here?

Heather: Cocktail! Cocktail!

Chris: They are coming. I see them coming.

Heather: So that is the probably between a straight and and a straight flush. And that is a very good question to start with. I have my white board just in case you have any other questions, I can show you on the white board.

Chris: I have a question for you. Can you explain the difference between probability and odds? Is there a difference? Is that the same thing?

Heather: Ummm

Chris: Or did I just blindside you?

Heather: Whenever you are not sure exactly of the answer always take a sip of water and that gives you time to think. (Sipping water)

Chris: Sure. Okay. Okay. Let me check over here in the Ocean14XL group to see if any questions came in. Not just yet.

Heather: I actually don’t know the answer to that question. I have to look it up. So the whole probability thing and the whole – as far as probability with odds and the house advantage and that. I don’t know well enough that I would be able to answer the question. That would be something I would have to look up. That is actually a really good question. I think that merits it’s own video.

So what I am going to do I am going to do a Q & A video on that.

Chris: Yeah.

Heather: I will tell you guys the difference between that because that is a fantastic question.

Chris: That is how you get them hooked. You throw out the question and you have to come back on the next episode to find out the answer.

Heather: Yes it’s like Batman. Next Bat-time. Next Bat-channel. Next Bat-day. I used to love that. Holy rusted metal batman! Do you remember that?

Chris: Yeah I remember. At least it wasn’t as bad as Batman or Robin.

Heather: Then his costume has nipples. I couldn’t believe it. I mean who makes a costume for Batman and puts nipples on his freaking costume. You just don’t do that.

Chris: I was just disappointed he didn’t sport a bat nipple ring. That’s all I wanted. You know. That is like me and my own fetishes. I’m not going to go there.

Heather: That is awesome. They should have had that for suicide squad. I mean they already have the messed up joker and the – Harley Quinn was hot though. I liked Harley Quinn.

Chris: Well yeah.

Heather: But then –

Chris: She killed it.

Heather: What?

Chris: She killed it in that movie.

Heather: Yeah. I thought you said she killed him. I am like I didn’t see that. Don’t tell me that. Don’t ruin it for me. No spoilers. OMG. She killed the joker?

Chris: I am saying Margot Robbie killed it in that movie. And she looks good in I, Tonya too.

Heather: Awesome.

Chris: So how far off tangents are we allowed to go?

Heather: Oh very off tangents.

Chris: Oh okay cool.

Heather: Yeah this is supposed to be entertaining as well as informative.

Chris: Okay cool, cool.

Heather: Nipple rings and batman and you know that is all good.

Chris: It’s all fair game.

Heather: That’s all fair game.

Chris: Good to know.

Heather: We are totally good on that.

Chris: Do we have a safe word?

Heather: Wait, now I want to think about that.

Chris: I totally got you off guard with that question. Strawberries is my safe word. If you ever hear me in a casino screaming strawberries I’ve had enough.

Heather: The more you know. This is more than you ever wanted to know about Chris in Vegas Aces.

Chris: I am totally over sharing. It feels liberating to get it out there.

Heather: Don’t worry I overshare all the time. I think the first time I did my YouTube channel I had a couple blogs, like at the very beginning like 2011 or 2012. I was so embarrassed by my blogs that I deleted all of them. This is like the most embarrassing thing ever. So I just deleted all of them. And then four years later, okay let’s try the blog thing again.

Chris: Do you enjoy doing the blogs?

Heather: Not at all. Oh gosh no. They stress me out. I force myself to do live streaming and to do blogs. That stresses me out like you would not believe. It’s mainly because with my videos I have a script. I know exactly what I am saying and what I am doing.

Chris: Yeah Yeah.

Heather: I know everything that is going – and I am set. You know! I know what we are doing. We are good to go. Let’s do this thing. With a livestream, I am more like myself. We go off topic a lot. Oh look squirrel! So that is how I normally am. And that is not good for education.

Chris: That is how I am out in public and I hear someone say the word Vegas when I am in Los Angeles.

Heather: Squirrel.

Chris: I will totally squirrel. Did someone say Vegas?

Heather: What were you talking about? Can I join in on the conversation? Want to be on my podcast.

Chris: I am from Vegas too. What to hang out? Call me.

Heather: Friends? Friends as adults. We need to – It’s so hard to make friends as adults. Oh dude I tell you what. Okay we are off topic again.

Chris: I am going to jump into the 14 XL room and see if – Oh and by the way I keep saying 14XL, can I say what that is?

Chris: 14XL is a group of people that get together and hang out in Vegas. We had one last year. We might do a couple more this year. It’s informal, it’s not really a thing. But it is kindof a thing. This time it is going to be superbowl weekend and so if you would like to hang out with a bunch of Vegas enthusiast during the Superbowl weekend, you can – easiest place to find it is @oceans14XL on Twitter. It’s just a play off Oceans 11 - 12 - 13. This is kind of a silly 14 XL.

Heather: So basically everyone that you follow in oTwitter that is in our group basically is going to be there?

Chris: A lot of the people that you have met before. I don’t know how to explain it to people out there…it’s basically Vegas enthusiast. The kind of people that come out to Vegas maybe a few times a year to several times a year. Some of them have podcasts. Like Tipping the Odds Las Vegas, Las Vegas Junkie, Humm what other Podcast would be here? Off the top of my head? Myself, I will be there. Ethic Esquire will be there. He writes a blog about gambling so there's going to be a bunch of people and it’s a good time.

Heather: Yeah Ethic Esquire is a pretty cool dude.

Chris: It’s not necessarily affiliated with any one podcast specifically. It’s just whoever – Hey, we are going to Vegas this weekend. Anyone that wants to join us, come join us. That is the spirit behind it.

Heather: Awesome. And you guys have so much fun stuff that you do. Every single time I go down there and join you guys, you are always doing something so much freaking fun. Like for example, one time I went downtown and I joined them and they were on the slot machines. It was like four slot machines on this side, four slot machines on that side and then you guys did a whole race and everything.

Chris: That was with 360Vegas vacation.

Heather: Okay.

Chris: Another Podcast that has great Vegas trips. I think their next one is coming up Memorial day weekend this May. That’s another opportunity if you want to come out and meet up with other Vegas enthusiasts. Check out and listen 360Vegas, or follow them on Twitter at 360Vegas and every – twice a year they do it. One Memorial Day and one Labor Day and listeners come out and hang out with the crew from that show.

Heather: Yeah and it is just so much fun. Everyone there is so nice.

Chris: Good times!

Heather: I love it.

Chris: Did you have any other – let me see.

Heather: Do you guys have any questions? So you will have to forgive me. I am not very good with the whole livestream thing. This is the second time I have actually done livestream so I am still learning how to use it. I don’t know if there is supposed to be a chat on the screen or something is supposed to be coming up? If you guys want, the people that are watching just type something in the chat. I don’t really care what it is. I just want to see if I can see it.

Chris: I don’t see anything. I wonder if the screen behind the screen is what you want to watch. I do have Julian from the Vegas Confessions Podcast. He and Shane have a great show. Which by the way if you haven’t listened to that one yet you should tune in. It’s a good one. It’s a new Podcast it’s only two, or three episodes in. So it is very easy to catch up. Actually I think it is four, or five episodes at this point. But Julian just chimed in, “Chris I agree vloggers are silly individuals.” Yes we are! We are very much silly individuals.

Heather: But it makes it fun!

Chris: Yeah.

Heather: I mean, you know silly people are awesome because it just makes it fun and enjoyable and it’s like you don’t know what to expect and everything.

Chris: Yes.

Heather: I like silly people.

Chris: I agree. Yep. Let’s see, Julian is actually listening to the stream while he is working. Not watching but listening.

Heather: Awesome. Very cool.

Chris: Hi Julian! What’s up man?

Heather: Hi! Since he is just listening and not watching I have to do this (mouth noises). Oh man that is a smeller.

Chris: Now if he were actually listening at work and had it on a speaker. He works in a restaurant, so I don’t know how that worked for the patreons.

Heather: There is so much we could do with this. This would be so much fun! We could make some really awful noises. Or some really bad conversation and get him in trouble. Did he say anything?

Chris: He said, “Heather check your pants.”

Heather: (Checks her pants) I need to get some toilet paper.

Chris: Yeah she will be back. Oh good leave the guest to host the show. Julian also says, good thing he’s wearing headphones.

Heather: Dang, so close.

Chris: What should we cover?

Heather: Well no one is writing any questions that I can see. We did cover the one question. We don’t really have any questions on a video either. That is another thing that I am going to do. When I post these videos out you are going to have a week, so if you have any questions write them in the comments section below the video and then I will use those questions to use for my livestream. So that way we can get peoples questions in early. Then we will have questions we can start off at. And that will get people in and situated and comfortable and they will start asking some questions after that.

Chris: Since we are supposed to be talking about odds and probability, let me ask you this question, which is a golden oldie. On the Roulette table and you are sitting there and you know they are post those wonderful, colorful numbers red and black and you see what’s come up and what numbers have come up, what – does that change the odds or probability knowing what numbers?

Heather: Actually the reason why casinos have the sign – they have that sign not just on roulette but they also have it on baccarat. They use this same tactic in baccara. What that does is it plates to the human psyche it plays to their psychology. It doesn't do anything with the odds, it doesn’t do anything with the table. It has absolutely nothing to do with anything like that. But it does play on the human psychology. So what people do is they look at those and they see patterns. And then when they see patterns they are more likely to bet, say a number they wouldn’t have bet before. Or they might say, “Oh look at all that black, red is definitely going to hit.” Instead of playing –

Chris: Oh red is due.

Heather: Yeah, red is due man. You know it’s due. So I’m going to put a \$100 on red. You know where as normally they wouldn’t do that before. That actually brings in a lot more money for the casinos. The signs do. And it’s a great way to generate more revenue without having to do anything with the table or the game itself.

Chris: Or a long strain of black and you say, “Oh look, it’s on a run.”

Heather: Right. And that’s so – again with probability, it’s a flip of a coin. There are no runs, there are no patterns, there is nothing like that. It’s the flip of a coin. And yes over time you are going to see patterns and you are going to see runs. But that is the way it is when you flip a coin. When you have the runs. That is how it normally is. Actually when people are on baccarat or they are on roulette and they see those runs, it’s just – it sorta makes them feel better. It’s like, “Yeah! I see this is going to happen, I know this is going to happen, I am confident, I am putting my bet up and I’m going to win that bet.” If they win, that enforces it.

Chris: Right.

Heather: And they want to do it more. And if they lose they say, “Oh well it’s the pattern. I screwed up on the pattern.” So yeah it’s a really great way for the casinos to make more money.

Chris: So you are saying casinos use psychology to help swindle me out of my money?

Heather: A Lot!!

Chris: What?

Heather: All the time.

Chris: Well I am never gambling again. Washing my hands of this whole thing right now. I’m out see ya!

Heather: That is actually one of the reasons why they don’t have a clock in the casino. They don’t want you to know what time it is. They don’t want you to know if it is night time or day time or anything like that. I think I heard the doctor. I think I heard the –

Chris: That’s my ringtone. Yes I’m a nerd.

Heather: I watched the Doctor Who Christmas Special. Did you watch it?

Chris: That was probably one of the best episodes I have seen in the last five years. I have watched it several times since it aired on Christmas day. That is what I did this morning and that is what I did last night. That episode is so phenomenal, so many tips of the hat to old Doctor Who –

Heather: I know I love that.

Chris: Not only Capaldi’s run but also the entire run of Moffat. There were so many Easter Eggs worth watching several times to catch them all. Man the story was tight.

Heather: And Moffat is such a great actor. They really –

Chris: Well Moffat is the producer, show runner.

Heather: He is!

Chris: Stephan Moffit is the producer.

Heather: What’s the guy's name that is the doctor right now?

Chris: Peter Capaldi

Heather: That is who I was thinking of. That’s who I was talking about. That dude is a great actor.

Chris: Fantastic!

Heather: Yeah he is like so freaking amazing. And they really could have done so much more with his character and they didn’t.

Chris: Yeah.

Heather: I am sorta sad like the first season I didn’t like it. Because I thought he was an old grumpy doctor. He wasn’t that cool.

Chris: Right.

Heather: But then in the next few seasons, they really made his personality younger and they made it more fun.

Chris: They lightened it up a lot.

Heather: Yeah. And then it’s like I really like this doctor. This is like one of my favorites. So when they changed him and it’s like a new doctor, I am super upset about that.

Chris: You gotta be excited about the first female doctor.

Heather: Yes. I am excited about that. I hope they do well with her. I really really hope they do well with her. I am curious to see if her companions will be females. Because every single companion he’s ever had was a female and it’s a semi-love interested type of thing. Which is sorta annoying. So I’m really curious to know if they do – and I sorta wish they would have done it, was with woman doctor if they still had Bill. You know how Bill is the lesbian and everything.

Chris: Yes that would have worked except Bill is dead. Oh did I spoil anything?

Heather: Oh don’t spoil anything. By the way…spoilers.

Chris: Sorry if you are not caught up with the 10th season of Doctor Who. Spoiled that for you! But your right that would have been very interesting having a lesbian character travel with a woman doctor. I think I heard they were casting a male to be her companion. You know male and female dynamic.

Heather: I am looking forward to that. I hope they do well with her.

Chris: Me too.

Heather: One other thing that I want to talk about Doctor Who before we get back to actually talking about casino stuff. In the earlier seasons did you notice that the Doctor only had 13 transformations and then after he went over the 13th transformation they sorta threw it out the window. It was like oh he can transform as many times as he wants.

Chris: Well they gave him more transformations in the Christmas special.

Heather: They did? I missed that. How?

Chris: Gallifrey Gave to Matt Smith's regenerating doctor the ability to regenerate as many – well –

Heather: As many times as he wanted? Did they give him a number?

Chris: They just said they gave him more.

Heather: Oh ok. I missed that one.

Chris: They didn’t say how many.

Heather: I have to watch that over again then. See Matt Smith was my least favorite Doctor out of all of them.

Chris: Oh he is my favorite.

Heather: He is your favorite? Really?

Chris: He is my favorite. Yeah bowties are cool.

Heather: Yeah bowties are cool. Bowties are cool man!

Chris: I think Matt Smith and also Amy Pollen, Raurie the story of River Song, like that combination of that group of people I think made that – his run my favorite of Doctor Who so far.

Heather: Yeah I love River Song. That was my most favorite character storyline. Everything. I loved her so much. David Tennon was my favorite.

Chris: He was a good doctor. A little bit of a silly doctor. There is something about the stories during Matt Smith's run that seemed a little more adult to me. Whereas Christopher Eccleston and David Tennant, those stories kind of skewed more towards kids.

Heather: Yeah.

Chris: I think that is why Matt Smith may be my favorite because I like his stories the best.

Heather: Cool. Right on. Should we talk about casino stuff? You know the actual stuff why we are here and what we really should be talking about.

Chris: Sure. Whatever. Want to get back to bat nipples, we can talk about whatever.

Heather: I totally want to talk about Batman's nipples. So Christopher Nolan – no just kidding.

Chris: Yeah who had the best nipple do you think?

Heather: This is what we are talking about on my stream.

Chris: Val Kilmer, George Clooney, or what’s his name?

Heather: The one that was in the newest one right?

Chris: Not Ben Affleck. Forget him.

Heather: No, not Ben Affleck. I don’t even consider him Batman.

Chris: Christian Bale. Who’s got the best nipples?

Heather: Christian Bale.

Chris: Christian Bale has the best nipples?

Heather: Christina Bale out of all of them. Yeah.

Chris: I would have to go Clooney nipples.

Heather: Clooney?

Chris: Yeah I don’t know why. I just imagine his nipples to be actually shaped like little bats.

Heather: Little bat rings. That is what he should do. He should go to the pool one day and have his nipples pierced and have little bats hanging off of them. “I’m Batman!”

Chris: Sorry you were trying to get thing back on track and I –

Heather: I don’t know I like bat nipples.

Chris: Let’s see if there are any questions.

Heather: If you guys have any other questions please post them.

Chris: Actually our friend Mitchell up in Canada just recently said that there is a pretty active chat on the YouTube channel right now that we can’t see.

Heather: So there is something going on.

Chris: I am going to excuse myself, step out and pull it up on the phone.

Heather: Or do you want to see if we can mess with it?

Chris: No you go ahead. Give me one second.

Heather: Sorry about this doing the livestream thing. We will get used to it. It’s all good. I even brought my dice. Besides, I am going to have to get used to talking in front of people anyway. Especially if I am going to be doing classes at UNLV. Speaking of which I have my eight hour class coming up. Oh yeah I am supposed to be talking to the camera.

Chris: It’s that way. (whisper)

Heather: I guess I need to explain to you guys about what I am talking about. So I am working at UNLV. Last semester we did two hour classes, which we covered blackjack, mini baccarat, roulette and craps. The time just goes by so fast. So UNLV has asked me to do another class in the Spring semester. But this time instead of the two hour class they want me to do an eight hour class. So I need to get ready for that. I am really looking forward to that. That is going to be – and you might be thinking eight hours. Eight hours for one class, that’s a lot. But it is not as much as you might think. What I am doing is breaking it up into hours. So the first hour I am going to do blackjack, second hour I am doing poker, then pai gow and then the next hour – you know so every hour it’s a different game. We have the lab and everything. We have a classroom. I am going to have a powerpoint presentation. So yeah I have been getting ready for that.

By the way Chris is looking at the comments. If you have any questions that you want me to answer go ahead and put them in there and Chris should be able to see it.

Chris: I am actually looking for the comments on YouTube on my phone and it’s not here.

Heather: They don’t have it. OMG. Maybe they put it at the end of it?

Chris: Maybe because I am not logged into YouTube?

Heather: That could be why.

Chris: Give me one more minute and if I can’t find it you can hit me up on Twitter or hit Heather up on Twitter. And we will take a look at our messages or whatever is going on.

Heather: That sounds good. We will try to get this all figured out and fixed by the time I do the next livestream video. I do want to be able to talk with you, and answer your questions. I want to have an actual conversation with you guys. I want to have a community, a conversation and be there for you guys and answer whatever questions you may have. We will figure it out and see what we need to do. If I have to I might just answer the questions next time I do the livestream. We will see how that works out. Are they talking about Batman's nipples on the livestream chat?

Chris: They are not talking about Batman's nipples.

Heather: We are the only ones talking about Batman’s nipples?

Chris: Which is going to be my new Twitter handle as soon as I finish this. Follow me on @batmansnipples.

Heather: I bet it’s free too. I bet it’s available.

Chris: Some SOB out there probably just did it. Okay so I am just going to keep looking here on Twitter because I can’t pull up YouTube discussion.

Heather: Yeah.

Chris: I am going to keep this here. Excuse me for doing this. I know I am from LA but I am not going to be like. OMG look at her! What is she wearing? Look at those earrings! OMG look at those nipple rings!

Heather: And in Las Vegas that would actually be something you would be saying walking along the strip. OMG look at those nipple rings.

Chris: Are those bats? Ok so I will keep an eye on this.

Heather: One day you are walking along the strip one day, ok look at the naked guy.

Chris: Don’t you come home and say, “You know what, I did not see one naked person on the stip today. How weird.”

Heather: I have thought that before.

Chris: Right?

Heather: Yeah like I have walked the strip before and I am like, “Wow that was actually a pretty normal day. Nothing weird happened. That’s weird.”

Come here Pip. This is Pip my baby dog. She is a pomeranian poodle. She is 11 years old. If you ever hear dog noises that’s her. Because my other one is quiet.

Chris: Sorry I am not able to pull up the YouTube discussion group.

Heather: Yeah, next time I will make sure I have the comments where I can see them and I can answer your question and everything. I think we are going to start wrapping it up and end the livestream for now. Do you have anything else you want to talk about? I know I don’t have anything I want to talk about.

Chris: I would definitely encourage people to check out the Las Vegas Junkie podcast, and Vegas Confessions podcast, and the Vegas Bun Boy podcast. Those are three new Vegas themed podcasts that I have recently joined the podcast ranks. We taught them the secret handshake and everything so they are officially part of Vegas podcasting. So if you really like listening to shows on your drive or when you run, go check out those shows. They are fantastic.

Heather: That thing that you showed me right before we started it. I am not going to mention it just in case you are not going to put it out there live or anything.

Chris: Oh the –

Heather: Are you going to do anything?

Chris: Shhhhh

Heather: Oh okay. Well that was freaking cool. So when he does what he is going to do you gotta check it out because it is freaking awesome.

Chris: Well that is a lot to live up to.

Heather: Well I tried to make it general enough.

Chris: Right! Right! But I don’t want to set up greatness because if I set up medoracy and deliver something kinda cool then I exceed that bar. But if people are expecting something really cool! Now I really have to come up with something. I gotta set myself on fire on the live – you know what, let's do it right now.

Heather: Got a lighter?

Chris: I do. Let’s just set myself on fire.

Heather: Probably set the curtains on fire too.

Chris: Thank you for inviting me to your lovely studio.

Heather: No problem. If you guys get a chance please check out Chris at Facesandaces podcast. It’s an awesome podcast. Check out his website. And thank you again for being a guest and joining me.

Chris: If anyone is headed out to Vegas for the Superbowl, or would like to join a group of people. I am in Vegas for the Superbowl, follow the @oceans14XL

Heather: Sounds cool. Buy guys. See you later.

Chris: Bye!

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