Casinos strive to provide the best entertainment and gaming services to players of all kinds while upholding transparency. But, despite the openness about how games operate, there are lots of players who still believe in hot and cold streaks.

A game is said to be hot when it delivers a series of positive outcomes, but cold when wagers are lost consecutively. Like most myths, the hot and cold streaks concept sounds true until you take a step back to learn or relearn the odds of casino games.

This article examines why some casino games are purportedly hot or cold, even though the odds remain constant.

Hot and Cold Casino Games

"Hot" or "Cold" in casino games is defined with reference to the outcome of a gaming session.

A "hot streak" means a series of bet winnings, while a "cold streak" means a series of negative gameplay outcomes leading to a decline in bankroll. In simpler terms, when a game's outcome is favourable over a period, it is said to be hot; the opposite is cold.

The games in which the terms are most commonly used include Slots, Roulette, and Blackjack.

Slot: Players believe that a machine is hot when they hit spin and immediately land three identical symbols, receiving a payout. On another try, they hit bonuses and maybe a jackpot. However, when they press spin and obtain a series of complete or near misses, they infer that the machine is cold.

Roulette: When the spinning wheel comes to rest, and the tiny balls keep landing on specific numbers, those numbers are said to be hot. Numbers on which players wager are said to be cold when the ball never stops on them.

Blackjack: When the cards from a deck seem favorable, players call it a "hot deck."

Patterns in Casino Game Outcomes: What the Odds Say

The concept of hot and cold streaks is false because there are no patterns to the outcomes of casino games. We will support this by examining three mathematical principles: the law of averages, statistical fluctuation, and the law of large numbers.

The Law of Averages

The law of averages, as it applies to casino gaming, dictates that the odds of winning casino games would "even out" over a long period of play. Note "long period," not short.

Now, let's further explain using a coin toss. Both sides of the coin (heads/tails) have a 50% chance of being flipped. Let's say we flip the coin about 5 times. It is possible to land heads four times! But what happens after 500 trials? The probability of obtaining 400 heads is exceptionally low. Therefore, instances in which the head appears consecutively would become insignificant across many trials, meaning outcomes would "average out" over time.

However, the problem with the law of averages is that many casino players tend to fixate on short winning or losing streaks and fall victim to the gambler's fallacy. The famous gambler's fallacy is the belief that past events predict future events. In other words, the more often a result occurs in the past, the lower the chances that it will happen in the future. This would work if casino games had memories. If the roulette wheel stops on red four times, it does not mean that on the next spin, the ball will land on black.

Statistical Fluctuation

It's time for some homework. if you flip a coin 200 times, and write down the answers, you will notice streaks of heads and streaks of tails. This is Statistical Fluctuation, or in gambling terms, hot streaks and cold streaks. Even though each coin flip is independent and always 50/50, when you flip many times (like 200), the number of possible sequences grows exponentially. This makes streaks, even long ones, quite likely in at least one part of the sequence. That's statistical fluctuation in action: variation that's normal in random processes. Frank Martin, a mathematician, does an amazing job explaining this phenomenon in this paper.

The Law of Big Numbers

The law of large numbers states that, for a given event, more trials are required to approach the expected value of the probability of success. Using a coin-flip experiment, J.E. Kerrich, a mathematician, recorded the number of times a coin landed on heads after 10,000 flips. He discovered that the more times he tried, the closer he got to a 50% presumed outcome.

The Ultimate Truth: Casino Game Odds Do Not Change

The results of every casino gaming session are independent. Random number generators (RNGs) in games, such as slots, ensure that gaming outcomes are determined by chance in real time and cannot be manipulated. When other factors, such as long-term RTP (return to player) and volatility, are taken into account, technically, "Hot" or "Cold " streaks have no basis.

Why Do Players Believe in Hot and Cold Streaks?

Despite multiple debunks, the main reason some players believe in hot and cold streaks is rooted in human psychology. Consciously and unconsciously, humans tend to search for patterns even when it is glaring that there are none. The desperate need to tie a plausible cause to an outcome often leads to the belief in hot and cold streaks.

Final Thoughts

No evidence backs the claim of hot and cold streaks in casino games, however, there are statistical laws that debunk it. When you next play at a casino and have a streak of wins, thank your stars, and bet with the streak, not against it. If it is a series of losses, know when to walk away. Manage your bankroll and play responsibly at all times!